AND FINALLY — “AZM-E-ISTEHKAM”
My longstanding predictions and apprehensions regarding this country seem to be coming true, now that the situation has suddenly taken another critical downturn. Pakistan is not a normal nation-state, but an abandoned geopolitical instrument, which is now coming apart at the seams not only as regards its defective economy and politics but it seems also territorially. Earlier in 1971 it had suffered its first territorial breakup when Bangladesh separated from Pakistan as that country could never have been part of the abnormal scheme involved in the creation of this entity — even though Bengali leaders were at the forefront of what they naively considered to be the “ideology of Pakistan” before being rudely disabused of their illusions. But the separation of Bangladesh, although highly traumatic and awash in blood — was in no way comparable to the complex situation of breakdown and decay we now see in the remainder of the original Pakistan. It was a quick surgical process even if brutal.
Pakistan was a rentier state in the outward form of a federated nation state run by a parasitic and privileged elite which lived in separation from the character of the society it governed. The sole purpose for its existence was to provide the territorial and political basis for an elite which acted against Soviet interests in a critically important region, on behalf of Anglo-American Western interests. Questions of national, political, cultural and economic legitimacy did not count, in the same way that issues of development and financial propriety did not, as long as the elite — which was dominated by the army — played its role in obfuscating Soviet regional moves; they were allowed to rob the aid they were given by their patrons at will, which formed the main source of sustenance for this country and its budget.
The peak of this activity was witnessed during the “Afghan Jihad” during which the CIA subverted an already flawed communist revolution in Afghanistan and via this action, finally defeated and broke up the USSR. In the post-Cold War world Pakistan retained its importance for the West — of possible pipeline politics and regional influence peddling via Jihadi mischief. Jihad became the main vehicle for Pakistan’s own regional sub-imperialism, which the West allowed as long as it was in line with their basic interests. Jihad (of which the Taliban were the final product) was however a potent poison, and the “post-9/11” order saw it acquire a momentum of its own regarding both its former Western masters as well as its Pakistani handlers. That precipitated an unpredicted and failed 20-year American involvement in Afghanistan — its longest war — as well as seeing the Jihad recoil on the Pakistani state that was supervising it, and subvert all aspects of its society, politics and culture.
However things changed dramatically in 2021 with the American realisation of defeat for them and their puppet “republic” in Kabul, prompting their hasty and panicked evacuation of Afghsnistan that year. In the meantime, Russia had gradually picked itself up and been increasingly asserting and steadily arrogating its former rightful role vis-à-vis Western hegemony on the global stage since 2012 after a 20-year break. The American defeat in Kabul gave Russia an opportunity to make major moves in altering the old and stale geopolitical equation in a manner favourable to its interests and designs, which it did via its invasion of the Ukraine a few months after the American Kabul defeat.
These moves and events resulted in the change of geopolitical priorities and a shift in the general geopolitical centre of gravity so to speak. Put simply, Pakistan was no longer needed by its Anglo-American and Western masters. They would not sustain it in the unscrupulous manner they had previously done as there was no need for that. Pakistan’s elites were alarmed as they were used to old ways and privileges and suddenly saw themselves at the precipice of a ravine.
Enter China and its dubious role. China’s relationship with Pakistan has been based strictly on a pragmatic appraisal of the latter’s regional interests and promptings in the South Asian region. There is no other ideological element or partnership basis involved. China’s role in Pakistan was always secondary to the influence of the West, and based on piecemeal infrastructural, military and technical assistance rendered with a generous and “friendly smile”. But it was always considered second class in comparison. Their relationship was couched in the typical Asiatic cultural style of rhetoric and platitudes to add the frills and enhancements to its appearance.
However the creation of the Jihad in Pakistan had brought about a great deal of systemic deterioration and corruption…and its subsequent blowback caused considerable internal turbulence and instability in its state and society, and that had caused its relationship with the West to cool in many ways. The West began seeing it as a liability and a pet gone diseased. At the same time China was gaining strength as a global economic power, and it embarked upon its ambitious Eurasian scheme of “One Belt — One Road” (OBOR) from 2013. Pakistan figured as a key component in this scheme, and the Chinese were able to secure commitments from its Pakistani proteges in this regard, at least ostensibly. However it seems that the Chinese planners overrated their estimation of Pakistan and the psyche of its people and culture. Work began on the Pakistani portion of OBOR (called CPEC) from 21 April 2015 — which literally envisaged Pakistan, its territory and infrastructure as a Chinese industrial, agricultural, trade and military dependency — but it was marred and progress was slowed by a corruption which the Chinese evidently had not factored in. Also the Pakistani elites expected the same favours and patronage from the Chinese as their Anglo-American masters had plied them with, for the better part of 200 years….but the Chinese were tough taskmasters and their rules and ethics were different. They did not desire a master-servant relationship as the Pakistanis had desired — but rather something more equitable. The Chinese also did not have the kind of interests that the West previously had, for which they richly rewarded their Pakistani servants and attendants. Meanwhile, the TTP and Baloch separatists had regularly taken to killing Chinese personnel in Pakistan working on CPEC. Covid-19 was another factor which struck the already beleaguered scheme like a bolt from the blue.
The events of late 2021 and early 2022 put paid to most of the CPEC aspirations. The West was abandoning Pakistan in its former role — but at the same time, did not wish to see it become a proxy of the Sino-Russian global partnership that could go against them unnecessarily. They need not have worried. When in February 2022 Imran Khan visited Moscow and naively pandered to the Russians by “supporting” the Russian military action in the Ukraine, that was enough for America which contacted Pakistan’s actual military powerbrokers (who were Imran’s former backers), and ordered them to effect an immediate “regime change” which they duly carried out.
Since then, all was silent on the CPEC front. It just vapourised and was barely mentioned. None of the traditional Chinese-Pakistani fanfare was present and the few press articles that were written about it — literally wrote it off. Pakistan instead wooed its traditional IMF masters, who this time were determined to keep it at arm’s length and end the free lunch that the horrified Pakistani elites had previously taken for granted.
Lately, on 20 June 2024, the head of the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee Liu Jianchao visited Pakistan to “review CPEC”. He issued a statement, advising rival Pakistani politicians and policymakers to unite and “improve their internal security situation”. On 23 June, the Pakistan Government announced that it was initiating a new and long term military “operation” against TTP in its strongholds in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, as well as fresh diplomatic efforts to convince the Taliban regime in Kabul to stop abetting and cooperating with the TTP whose terrorist incidents have increased lately over the province. The new operation would be named “Azm-e-Istehkam” (Persian/Urdu for “Determination for Unity”), in the typically pompous and grandiloquent yet hollow Pakistani manner.
It is evident that these latest developments can lead only to more troubles in the given situation of Pakistan, as explained above. The rot in Pakistan is far too advanced and complicated, to expect any hope at all, within the ambit of current expectations. It was also the hope of all anti-imperialist and Eurasian minded people in the world that China in alliance with Russia would play a positive role in defeating the global dark forces who are determined to foist injustice and disorder upon humanity. But the unscrupulous and greed-driven cooperation of China with infamous, discredited and defeated corrupt elements such as Pakistan’s elites — can only detract from China’s great potential, destroy its reputation, and expose its “Communist” pretensions. It would be better to leave a stinking and rotten situation, rather than to try foolishly to make a silk purse from a sow’s ear. I for one, never expected this attitude from China, and it has come as a great and disgusting shock to me. One day, the Chinese people and their leadership will have to account for why they did this — in the court of history.